While the week had a significant absence of impactful data releases, there are still the notable U.S. retail figures numbers, as the turbulent tariff policies that have been announced have sent shockwaves across many industries. This time the U.S. retail sales have seen a significant jump as consumers try to get ahead of the tariff policies, although it is suspected that the subsequent data will show a significant curtailing of purchasing power by consumers. This restraint in the future is what has most analysts concerned about the future in addition to inflation rising as a result of the tariff policies.

U.S. Retail Sales

The numbers: Retail sales in the U.S. surged 1.4% in March—the biggest increase in more than two years—as shoppers sought to buy big-ticket items such as cars before Trump administration tariffs could raise prices.

The rise in sales surpassed Wall Street expectations, but it doesn’t mean the U.S. economy is trouble-free. The trade wars threaten to boost prices, fuel inflation and slow the economy in the months ahead if they persist.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.21% for this week, with the current rate at 6.03%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.21% for this week, with the current rate at 6.83%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.36%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.38%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 215,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 224,000.

What’s Ahead

Watching where crude oil is headed in the coming weeks will also be important to see how international trade is handling the recent tariff policies. In addition, the Consumer Sentiment report will give a better indication of how safe consumers feel in the current climate, along with the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book.

Last week’s inflation reports, both the CPI and PPI, came in significantly cooler than expected. However, this must be viewed in the context of the administration’s recent tariff policies. Rather than signaling a healthy reduction in inflation, the data points to signs of deflation—which can be just as damaging to the economy as high inflation. While the FOMC Minutes offered little insight regarding interest rate changes, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that no action will be taken until more data becomes available. Finally, the latest consumer sentiment report dropped to its lowest level in three years, with inflation concerns reaching their highest point since 1981.

Consumer Price Index

Consumer prices fell in March for the first time since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, but economists warn inflation could get worse if the U.S. retains higher tariffs on China and the rest of the world. The consumer-price index declined 0.1% last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, aided by falling oil prices and lower airfares. It was the first drop since May 2020.

Producer Price Index

Cheaper oil has taken some pressure off on the inflation front, but it may only be temporary in the face of a major trade war between the U.S. and China. Wholesale prices in the U.S. fell 0.4% in March, dropping for the first time in 17 months, mimicking a similar report on consumer goods and services that showed retail-level inflation was muted last month.

Consumer Sentiment

The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell to 50.8% in a preliminary April reading from 57.0% in the prior month.  It is the lowest level since June 2022. Sentiment has dropped for four straight months and is down 30% from December. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had expected an April reading of 54.6%.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw no change from last week, with the current rate at 5.82%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 6.62%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.47% for this week. Current rates at 6.50%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.47% for this week. Current rates at 6.52%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 223,000 compared to the expected claims of 223,000. The prior week landed at 219,000.

What’s Ahead

Very light release week with low impact data in the form of Federal Reserve’s beige book, Consumer Sentiment, and Leading U.S. Economic Indicators.