With the passing of the previous busy weeks of rate decisions, this week features the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation report in the PCE Index, which has shown that inflation has come in hotter than expected for the month of May. This likely cements the Federal Reserve’s decision to take no action until later and further confirming most economists’ predictions. The consumer confidence has also taken a hit as it has further declined again for the month of May, indicating there is still significant apprehension within the markets and consumers alike. This is accompanied by Consumer Spending data, which met expectations, as many consumers had already begun pulling back on spending in response to tariff policies before many of those measures were paused.

PCE Index
In an updated forecast, Federal Reserve officials now expect inflation, as measured by the core personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) index, to jump to 3.1% by the end of the year, up from a rate of 2.5% in April.

Consumer Spending
Americans cut spending in May after buying lots of new cars and other goods earlier in the year to beat U.S. tariffs, underscoring how ongoing trade wars are disrupting the economy. Personal spending fell 0.1% last month, the government said Friday. It was the first decline since January.

Consumer Sentiment
The ongoing trade wars haven’t faded from public view. Consumer confidence fell in June, as Americans grew more pessimistic about the future of the economy and their ability to find a job. The index of consumer confidence declined to 93 last month from 98.4 in May, when the Trump administration dialed back the highest U.S. tariffs.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week, with the current rates at 5.89%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of of -0.04% for this week, with the current rates at 6.77%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.19% for this week, with the current rates at 6.22%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.19% for this week, with the current rates at 6.23%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 236,000 compared to the expected claims of 246,000. The prior week landed at 246,000.

What’s Ahead
Non-farm Payrolls, Job Data, Manufacturing PMI Data will be the largest reports out for next week. The most important data reflecting the impact of tariffs has already been released.

With the passing of the FOMC rate decision, it has become clear that the Federal Reserve is taking a wait-and-see approach to the current situation regarding tariff policies. Although the vast majority of economists around the world have made predictions about what lies ahead, the effects have not yet been pronounced. Many of the recent tariff changes have also been revoked or put on pause for the largest industries, leaving many markets uncertain about the future. The key takeaway is that conditions will likely remain steady for now. The only other data release offering insight into what’s to come is the notable decline in U.S. retail sales, reflecting a reduction in consumer activity.

U.S. Retail Sales
Simmering trade wars have created a sort of start-and-stop economy, and the latest snapshot of retail sales in May underscores the threat to U.S. growth. Sales at retailers nationwide fell for the second month in a row, the government reported Tuesday. Receipts tumbled 0.9% in May after a small decline in April, based on seasonally adjusted numbers.

FOMC Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday stuck to its forecast of two interest-rate cuts in 2025 despite seeing a burst of inflation coming in the next few months as a result of higher tariffs. In an updated forecast, Fed officials now expect inflation, as measured by the core personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) index, to jump to 3.1% by the end of the year, up from a rate of 2.5% in April.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week, with the current rates at 5.96%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of of -0.03% for this week, with the current rates at 6.81%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rates at 6.41%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week, with the current rates at 6.42%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 245,000 compared to the expected claims of 246,000. The prior week landed at 250,000.

What’s Ahead
Job data is due ahead next week as well as the more recent data from the U.S. trade deficits, which many have had their eyes on.