The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index — released under delayed conditions, but it was within expectations. Next week will be another Federal Reserve Rate Decision, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates at least one more time. The optimism among the broader market has been showing that multiple sectors that seem unphased by the administrative decisions and current political climate. 

PCE Index
The PCE Index came in at 2.8% in November on an annualized basis. According to data from the Commerce Department, core PCE, which excludes food and energy, also stood at 2.8% on an annual basis. It rose 0.2% over the previous month.

GDP
The economy expanded at a zippy 4.4% annual pace in the third quarter of 2025, an updated estimate showed, to keep the U.S. on track to score the fifth straight year of above-average growth. Gross domestic product, the official scorecard of the economy, was revised up from the original 4.3% reading, the government said Thursday. It was the strongest quarter of growth in two years.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06%, with the current rate at 5.44%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03%, with the current rate at 6.09%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.10%, with current rates at 5.85%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.10%, with current rates at 5.87%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 200,000 compared to the expected claims of 208,000. The prior week landed at 199,000.

What’s Ahead
The FOMC Rate Decision and delayed Core PPI data will be the largest items for the upcoming week.

Inflation reports have shown their cards, and they have come in line with expectations. These newer reports rely on less data from sources overall, which is why the PCE Index remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator—and that distinction is even more relevant now.

Despite inflation coming in as expected, consumers are still feeling the steady pressure of price increases that are not keeping pace with wage growth. This is also consistent with what the PPI has shown, indicating that manufacturers are experiencing persistent inflationary pressure as well, though still in line with expectations. The Federal Reserve is still expected to reduce rates one more time heading into the new year.

Consumer Price Index
Inflation remained steady, with the December 2025 year-over-year CPI at 2.7%, matching November, while core CPI (excluding food/energy) was slightly lower at 2.6%, suggesting easing underlying pressures but with persistent shelter costs as the main driver. Month-over-month, CPI rose 0.3%, driven by food and shelter, though energy saw smaller gains and used cars declined, indicating a mixed but generally stable trend.

Producer Price Index
The cost of wholesale goods and services rose during the government shutdown and showed the persistence of inflation pressures in the guts of the U.S. economy. A combined report on producer prices showed a 0.2% increase in November and a 0.1% rise in October, the government said. The two months were combined into one report due to the recent federal shutdown.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08%, with the current rate at 5.38%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.10%, with the current rate at 6.06%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.06%, with current rates at 5.75%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.07%, with current rates at 5.77%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 198,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 207,000.

What’s Ahead
Another FOMC Rate Decision for next week as well as some of the delayed Core PPI inflationary data.