The week following the FOMC rate decision meetings are typically very light, with the two most influential releases being the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the weekly Job Claims reports. The more positive news is mortgage lending rates have been on the decline in the last two weeks.
Consumer Credit Reports
Consumer sentiment fell in November for the fourth month in a row due to tensions with the Middle East and there is lingering hawkishness from the Federal Reserve, which could spell continued rate hikes in the future.
The preliminary reading of the sentiment survey declined to 60.4 from 63.8 in October, the University of Michigan said Friday, making it the weakest reading since May.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.22% with the current rate at 6.81%.
- 30-Yr FRM rates seeing a week-to-week decrease by -0.26% with the current rate at 7.5%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Yr FHA rates increased week to week seeing a 0.20% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.91%
- 30-Yr VA rates increased week to week seeing a 0.04% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.74%
Jobless Claims
The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday also showed unemployment rolls rising to a six-month high.
Initial Claims have decreased to 217,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week was 220,000.
What’s Ahead
The next week will have much bigger market impacting data reports with the releases of CPI and PPI. There will also be a significant amount of the Federal Reserve members speaking throughout the week on rate policy decisions.
This week’s most significant data offered preliminary numbers for manufacturing and services PMI (Purchasing Managers Index). Both can serve as a forward indicator for the economy while providing insight into the current state of the cost of living for the service industry. While manufacturing met an expected rise for the end of October, services saw a contraction, falling to 46.6 from 49.3. Readings below 50.0 can be a sign of a downturn for the economy, particularly given the time of the year.