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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – May 11, 2015

May 11, 2015 by Kay Monigold

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week May 11 2015Last week’s scheduled economic reports primarily revolved around the jobs sector. The federal government released reports on Nonfarm Payrolls, the national unemployment rate and weekly report on new jobless claims. ADP issued its monthly report on private sector payrolls. Readings on labor statistics are important to housing markets as stable employment conditions are a significant consideration for prospective home buyers.

Private-Sector Job Creation Falls, Non-Farm Payrolls Rise

According to ADP, private-sector payrolls fell by 6000 jobs in April to a reading of 169,000 new jobs. This was the fifth consecutive monthly drop in new private sector jobs. ADP also adjusted its March reading to 175,000 new private-sector jobs.

The U.S. Commerce Department reported that Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 223,000 in April after a bleak reading of 85,000 new jobs added in March. Analysts said that all economic sectors added jobs in March with the exception of the energy sector. More workers joined the labor force in April, which suggests that jobs are easier to find.

Unemployment Dips to Lowest Rate since 2008

The national unemployment rate fell to 5.40 percent in April, which was the lowest reading since 2008. While a low unemployment rate is good news for job seekers, it will likely prompt the Federal Reserve to raise its target interest rate sometime this year. Analysts expect that if current economic conditions hold steady, the Fed may raise rates in September. Fed policymakers have consistently stated that any decisions to raise rates would be based on careful review of current domestic and foreign economic trends. When the Fed does raise rates, mortgage rates are expected to increase.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported that mortgage rates jumped across the board last week. The rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose from 3.68 percent to 3.80 percent; the average rate for a 15-year mortgage rose from 2.94 percent to 3.02 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage rose from 2.85 percent to 2.90 percent. Discount points for fixed rate mortgages were unchanged at 0.60 percent, but dropped from an average of 0.50 percent to 0.40 percent.

Weekly jobless claims also rose, but were lower than expected at 265,000 new jobless claims filed against an expected reading of 277,000 new claims. The prior week’s reading was unrevised at 262,000 new claims filed. New jobless claims remained close to a 15-year low.

While economists note that labor market conditions are improving, wages increased at a year-over-year rate of 2.20 percent as compared to the normal year-over-year increase of 3.00 percent.

What’s Ahead

This week’s economic reports include more readings on labor market conditions along with reports on retail sales and consumer sentiment. Readings for weekly jobless claims and Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates report will be released as usual on Thursday.

Filed Under: Market Outlook Tagged With: Department of Commerce, Freddie Mac, Jobless Claims

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 15, 2014

December 15, 2014 by Kay Monigold

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week December 15 2014

Although there were few scheduled economic events related to mortgages and housing, last week brought an article about housing projections for 2015. Other news included increased job openings along with lower than expected jobless claims and higher mortgage rates.

Job Openings, Retail Sales and Mortgage Rates Rise

The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that November job increased to 4.80 million as compared to October’s reading of 4.70 million job openings. Weekly jobless claims corresponded as new claims fell to 294,000 as compared to the prior week’s reading of 297,000 new jobless claims. This was the lowest reading for new jobless claims in three weeks. Analysts had expected a reading of 206,000 new jobless claims.

Further signs of economic strengthening were seen in the retail sector. Retail sales posted their strongest gains in eight months with a gain of 0.70 percent in November according to the Commerce Department. November’s reading exceeded expectations of a 0.40 percent increase which was based on October’s original reading of a 0.30 percent increase in retail sales. November’s retail sales (excluding automotive sales) rose by 0.50 percent, which was the highest reading since June. October’s reading was later revised to 0.50 percent. Automotive sales rose by 1.70 percent in November, which was their highest reading since August.

Amidst last week’s economic gains, mortgage rates also rose. Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.93 percent, a gain of four basis points over the previous week. The average rate 15-year mortgage gained 10 basis points at 3.20 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage rose by four basis points to 2.94 percent. Average discount points for all three loan types remained steady at 0.50 percent.

Analysts Offer Housing Predictions for 2015

Fortune reported predictions made by analysts during a panel discussion on housing trends. David M. Blitzer, chairman of the S& P Index Committee, characterized next year’s housing trends as “mysterious.” Analysts pinpointed the influence of the millennial generation as gaining strength in housing markets. As millennials begin to buy their first homes, their tastes and preferences are expected to overshadow the long-held influence of the baby boomer generation. Millennial influence includes a trend called millennial mis-match; Millennials prefer to live in high-cost areas including New York City, Honolulu, Hawaii and Austin, Texas, but their status as first-time home buyers conflicts with this preference. Other trends discussed by analysts attending the panel discussion included:

Mortgage rates predicted to rise: Stronger economic conditions and no Federal stimulus are expected to contribute to rising mortgage rates, which some analysts said were expected to rise to approximately 5.00 percent for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage.

Home price growth and affordability expected to decline: Home prices gained 6.40 percent year-over-year in October 2014 as compared to growth of 10.60 percent for the same period in 2013. High demand for homes in pricey markets coupled with rising mortgage rates are expected to price the middle class out of many high-demand markets.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic events include the Wells Fargo/National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index report for December and the Commerce Department’s December report on Housing Starts. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve will release its customary statement after its meeting concludes on Wednesday. The FOMC statement will be followed by a press conference given by Fed chair Janet Yellen, who also chairs the FOMC.

Filed Under: Market Outlook Tagged With: Department of Commerce, Housing Projections, Market Outlook

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Kay MonigoldKay Monigold
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