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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 9, 2023

October 9, 2023 by Kay Monigold Leave a Comment

The previous week offered a blend of economic updates, covering a report on the jobs market and weekly changes in mortgage rates.

The Jobs Report Was Released
This week, the monthly jobs report was released by the United States Bureau of Labor and Statistics. It showed that the job market completely exceeded all expectations, adding 336,000 jobs during the month of September. That was far higher than the expected number of 170,000. It also represents a significant increase when compared to August, where the economy added a revised total of 227,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate remained relatively steady, coming in at 3.8 percent, which is the same as August. This jobs report is important because it could play a role in whether the Fed decides to raise interest rates in November or keep them the same. With the jobs growth exceeding all expectations, it could give the Fed reason to raise interest rates, as the Fed might believe the economy is still red hot and can tolerate higher interest rates.

A Shift in Mortgage Rates and Employment Dynamics
The 30-year fixed mortgage, the most popular in the United States, continues to trend upward. This week, the average 30-year fixed climbed to 7.8 percent, up significantly from 7.55 percent last week. This is also significantly higher than the rates were in August, which averaged around 7.15 percent. Some experts are stating that a potential rate of 8 percent is not out of the question.

The 15-year fixed mortgage rate has also continued to trend upward, albeit not as much. This week, the average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage was 7.12 percent, up from 7.05 percent last week. This is still significantly higher than the 6.5 percent average that we saw in August.

It is clear that these rising mortgage rates are putting a damper on those looking to buy a home; however, it does not appear to have caused a major drop in housing prices, although its impacts could still be yet to come.

Consumer Sentiment: A Mild Dip
Consumer sentiment appears to be holding steady, with the current numbers coming in around 68.1. This is still a bit lower than the numbers were in August when they came in at around 69.5. At the same time, the overall sentiment of the current economic conditions continues to trend downward, coming in around 71.4, compared to 75.5 in August.

Consumers are still concerned about inflation and rising interest rates, which make it harder to make ends meet. It will be interesting to see how the jobs report impacts consumer sentiment moving forward.

Looking Forward
The Producer Price Index is due to be released next week, which is another key component of inflationary data. For now, all eyes will be on the Fed’s next meeting, which takes place in early November. The Fed will decide whether to raise rates or hold them steady for another cycle.

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: Case Shiller, Financial Report, Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – May 26th, 2020

May 26, 2020 by Kay Monigold

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - May 26th, 2020

Last week’s economic news included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing market conditions and reports on housing starts and building permits issued.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress about the impact of Covid-19. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Home Builder Confidence Improves in May

Home-builder confidence rose seven points in May to an index reading of 37; April’s reading of 30 was the lowest reading for the NAHB Housing Market Index since June 2012. Low mortgage rates and expectations that the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic had passed contributed to higher readings for builder confidence.

Component readings in the Housing Market Index were higher in May; builder confidence in current market conditions rose six points to 42.

Builder confidence in home sales within the next six months rose ten points to 46, and the reading for buyer traffic in new housing developments rose from 13 to 21. Readings below 50 are historically common for buyer traffic, but mandatory shelter-at-home rules kept more potential buyers away.

NAHB Housing Market Index readings above 50 indicate that most builders surveyed were positive about U.S. housing markets. Readings below 50 indicate that most builders surveyed were pessimistic about housing conditions.

Fed Chair Urges Congress to Help Pandemic Victims

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress and said that those impacted by Covide-19 should receive as much assistance as possible. While Congress approved Federal Reserve Loans to mid-to-large businesses,  Mr. Powell reminded Congress that they must also do as much as possible to help low to moderate-income families and businesses and cited a Federal Reserve study that reported 40 percent of households making less than $40,000 lost a job within the first month of the pandemic.

Sales of Pre-Owned Homes, Housing Starts, and Building Permits Issued Fall in April

The Commerce reported lower readings for sales of pre-owned homes, housing starts, and building permits issued in April. Sales of previously owned homes fell to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 4.33 million sales as compared to the March reading of 5.27 million sales. 

Housing  Starts fell to an annual pace of  891,000 starts in April as compared to 1.276 million starts reported in March. The Commerce Department reported 1.074 million building permits issued on an annual basis; this reading was also lower than the March reading of 1.356 million permits issued but was higher than the expected reading of 996,000 permits issued.

Mortgage Rates Fall as New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week; the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was four basis points lower at 3.24 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.70 percent and were two basis points lower than for the prior week.

Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.17 percent and were four basis points lower. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent f04 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims reported by states fell to 2.44 million claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 2.69 million initial claims filed.  The reading for state and federal jobless claims filed rose from 3.21 million to 3.30 million as applicants applied for additional jobless benefits offered through federal pandemic relief programs.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic readings include Case-Shiller’s Home Price Indices, the FHFA Home Price Index, and data on new home sales. Monthly readings on inflation and consumer sentiment are scheduled along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Filed Under: Financial Reports Tagged With: COVID19, Financial Reports, Unemployment Rates

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Kay MonigoldKay Monigold
Owner/Mortgage Broker/Residential Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS#1086176

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Residential Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS #1085638

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