While delayed, the Producer Price Index has indicated that the war in Iran has pushed producer prices to new highs, as oil prices have surged amid the conflict, coming in at more than double the expected value. It is unlikely we will see prices recede, even if there is a quick resolution. There will be long-term impacts that continue to keep gas prices elevated until then.

Outside of the influential PPI release, the schedule was relatively slim, with only further discussion of the FOMC rate decision, which largely focused on maintaining the status quo until more data and developments come to light.

Producer Price Index
The producer price index, a measure of pipeline costs that producers receive for their products, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.7% on the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, the so-called core PPI increased 0.5%.

For the all-items index, prices rose faster than the 0.5% pace in January. However, the core increase was less than the 0.8% for the prior month. On a 12-month basis, headline PPI inflation was at 3.4%, the most since February 2025, while core was at 3.9%, according to the BLS. The Federal Reserve targets inflation at 2%.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04%, with the current rate at 5.54%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.11%, with the current rate at 6.22%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.13%, with current rates at 6.00%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.12%, with current rates at 6.01%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 205,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 213,000.

What’s Ahead
Employment data, employment, wages, consumer confidence, and manufacturer reports such as the PMI are due next week without any delays.

With the release of the delayed PCE and CPI inflation data reports, the Federal Reserve has chosen to stick to its resolve and maintain the current interest rates. It remains to be seen whether this will result in maintaining them or even increasing rates, as reports have shown that inflation is remaining sticky for the average consumer. This has been exacerbated by the ongoing conflicts with Iran, which have pushed gasoline prices higher.

There is some speculation that the Federal Reserve may walk back a rate hike in order to combat this ongoing stubborn inflation, but there is little sign of that yet. Consumer sentiment has also been shown to be dropping, as prices from the conflicts in Iran have impacted consumers.

Consumer Price Index
Consumer prices rose at a modest pace in February in a report that normally would be well received by investors, but the conflict with Iran has raised oil prices and it threatens to undo the recent progress in lowering the rate of inflation. The consumer price index increased 0.3% last month, matching the Wall Street forecast.

PCI Index
Federal Reserve officials have grown more worried about sticky inflation in the past few months, and the central bank’s favorite price gauge shows why. Prices rose briskly in January and are on track to increase sharply in February. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% in January, the government Friday, in a report delayed a few weeks by recent federal shutdowns. The increase matched the Wall Street forecast.

Consumer Sentiment
Federal Reserve officials have grown more worried about sticky inflation in the past few months, and the central bank’s favorite price gauge shows why. Prices rose briskly in January and are on track to increase sharply in February. The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3% in January, the government Friday, in a report delayed a few weeks by recent federal shutdowns. The increase matched the Wall Street forecast.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.07%, with the current rate at 5.50%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.11%, with the current rate at 6.11%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.15%, with current rates at 5.87%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.15%, with current rates at 5.89%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 213,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 215,000.

What’s Ahead
The delayed Consumer Spending report is scheduled for release next week. Aside from that, it is expected to be a relatively light week for economic data.