Last week’s economic news included readings  from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index and July readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on initial jobless claims and mortgage rates were also released.

NAHB: Home Builder Sentiment Remains High

According to the National Association of Home Builders, builder confidence in housing market conditions rose one point to an index reading of 66 for August. Housing Market Index readings showed that builder sentiment has held steady with readings of 64 to 66; any reading over 50 indicates positive builder sentiment.

Analysts said that despite strong readings for builder confidence in recent months, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued did not reflect high builder confidence readings. Reports on housing starts and building permits issued fall one month behind the NAHB Housing Market Index.

Housing Starts Falter as Building Permits Increase

Commerce Department readings for July showed mixed results for housing starts and building permits issued as starts fell from June’s downwardly revised reading of 1.24 million starts to 1.19 million starts in July. Housing starts are calculated on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis.

July building permits rose from June’s reading of 1.232 million permits to 1.336 million permits issued. Analysts expected a reading of 1.287 million housing starts for July. This was the second consecutive positive reading for housing starts after a post-recession period of fewer starts.

While building permits for single-family homes traditionally outpace permits issued for multi-family housing, analysts noted that demand for multi-family housing developments is trending higher due to high prices for single-family homes.

Increasing costs for building materials, indications of  global and domestic economic uncertainty and changing consumer priorities were cited as trends impacting housing starts.

Mortgage Rates Hold Near Record Low, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported little change in mortgage rates last week; the average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages was unchanged at 3.60 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.07 percent and were two basis points higher.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell one basis point to 3.35 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims rose last week to 220,000 new claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 211,000 new jobless claims filed. Analysts expected 212,000 claims to be filed last week. Nearly 6,000 new jobless claims filed in California boosted last week’s reading for new claims.

The less volatile four-week rolling report on new jobless claims rose by 1,000 claims to  213,750 new claims filed. New jobless claims hit their highest level in six weeks, but were lower than average.

Consumer sentiment concerning current economic conditions fell 6.20 points to an index reading of 92.1 according to the University of Michigan monthly survey of consumer confidence in the economy. Concerns over trade wars and the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower its target interest rate range prompted consumer confidence to slip in August.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on sales of new and previously owned homes and minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic releases included readings on consumer credit, job openings and weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.

Consumer Credit Use, Job Openings Slow in June

Consumer credit use slowed in June as credit card use lost ground. Non-revolving credit, which typically includes education and auto loans, grew at its slowest pace in three months. Mortgage loans are not included in the Federal Reserve’s report on consumer credit. Consumer credit use grew by $14.6 billion year-over-year in June as compared to May’s year-over-year reading of $16.0 billion.

Year-over-year credit use fell one percent in June to 4.30 as compared to May’s year-over-year reading of 5.30 percent. Credit card use fell by 0.10 percent in June, which suggested that consumers held off on large purchases. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said ,”households are in pretty good shape overall.” in reference to current economic conditions.

Job openings fell in June, but maintained a 15-month streak of seven million or more job openings. There were 7.35 million jobs open in June as compared to May’s reading of 7.38 million jobs open. Job openings rose in retail and real estate, but were lower in construction, leisure and hospitality categories.

Analysts said that shortages of skilled labor and fears over the effects of trade wars caused fewer hires. The trade war with China has not broken the longest period of economic growth in U.S. history, but escalation of trade disputes could further slow economic growth if trade wars aren’t resolved.

Mortgage Rates, Weekly Jobless Claims Fall

Mortgage rates dropped last week according to Freddie Mac. Rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.60 percent and were 15 basis points lower. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.05 percent and were 15 basis points lower.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages dropped ten basis points to 3.36 percent. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent, 0.50 percent and 0.30 percent respectively.

Initial jobless claims fell last week to 209,000 new claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 217,000  first-time claims filed. Analysts expected a reading of 215,000 new jobless claims filed for last week.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on housing market conditions, housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic news included readings from Case-Shiller on home prices, pending home sales, construction spending and a post-meeting statement from the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve.

Consumer sentiment was released along with Commerce Department reports on public and private sector job growth and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Home Price Growth Slows in May

The Case-Shiller National Home price Index showed slower home price growth in May; this was the 14^th consecutive month of slower growth in national home prices and the lowest reading for home price growth since the Great Recession.

Home prices grew by 3.40 percent on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to a 3.50 percent reading in April. While easing home price growth is a plus for would-be home buyers, slower growth in home prices could be a sign of overall economic slowing.

Construction spending was lower in June and fell by 1.20 percent. Analysts expected spending to slow at 0.10 percent based on May’s reading of -0.80 percent. Les spending suggests fewer homes will be built and demand for homes could increase based on the combined effects of slower price gains, low mortgage rates and fewer available homes.

Pending home sales jumped 2.80 percent in June and 1.60 percent year-over-year according to the National Association of Realtors®. The year-over-year gain was the first in 17 months. Analysts said that slower growth in home prices coupled with lower mortgage rates would prompt more buyers to enter the housing market.

The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee lowered the Fed’s benchmark interest rate range on Wednesday. Committee members voted to lower the key fed rate range from 2.25-2.50 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that this rate reduction was not  first in a series of rate cuts, but one-off rate cuts by the Fed are not common.

Job Growth Mixed, Unemployment Rate Unchanged

Labor-sector readings for July showed mixed results for public and private-sector job growth, ADP reported 156,000 private sector jobs were added in July as compared to 112,000 jobs added in July.

The Commerce Department reported 164,000  private and public-sector jobs added in July as compared to June’s reading of 193,000 public-and private-sector jobs added. July’s lower reading was not unexpected as analysts projected 163,000 public and private-sector jobs added in July.

The national unemployment rate held steady at 3.70 percent; this was higher than in recent months, but  remained relatively low, which suggested few layoffs and strong job markets.

Freddie Mac reported little change to average mortgage rates. 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.75 percent and were one basis point higher than for the prior week. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages were two basis points higher and averaged 3.20 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.46 percent and were one basis point lower.

Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages, 0.50 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.

First-time jobless claims rose to 215,000 claims filed and surpassed expectations of 210,000 new claims filed, which was based on the prior week’s reading of 208,000 first-time claims filed.

Last week’s economic reports wrapped up with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index reading for July, which was two points higher than June’s index reading of 98.2. Consumers surveyed reported paying off debt and increasing savings as a hedge against slower economic growth.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s economic readings include weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.

Last week’s economic reports included readings on sales of new and pre-owned homes and weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.

Realtors® Report Sales of Pre-Owned Homes Fall in June

Sales of previously-owned homes fell last month according to real estate pros. 5.27 million homes would be sold in 2019 if the current pace of sales was unchanged for all of 2019. Analysts expected a reading of 5.33 million sales based on May’s reading of 5.38 million sales. Analysts said that sales of pre-owned homes fell despite lower mortgage rates and the seasonal peak home-buying season.

Sales of pre-owned homes rose 1.60 percent in the Northeast and were 1.60 percent higher in the Midwest. Sales fell 3.40 percent in the South and were 3.50 percent lower in the West. Factors contributing to lagging home sales included low inventories of available homes and steadily rising home prices.

Home prices have risen every month for more than seven years. Fewer homes for sale and higher home prices limit buyers’ choices and their ability to qualify for financing needed to buy higher-priced homes.

New Home Sales Rise in June after Two-Month Lull

The sales pace for new single-family homes rose to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 646,000 sales as compared to an expected sales pace of 657,000 for new homes. May’s reading was downwardly revised from a sales pace of 626,000 sales to 604,000 sales. New homes sold fastest in the South and West and were slower in the Northeast and Midwest regions according to the Commerce Department.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported average mortgage rates approaching three year lows last week. Rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.75 percent and were six basis points lower. The average rate for 15-year fixed rate mortgages dropped five basis points to 3.18 percent; rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.47 percent and were one basis point lower.

First-time jobless claims fell last week to 206,000 new claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 218,000 new claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 216,000 first-time unemployment claims filed.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s economic reports include readings on housing markets, pending home sales  and the post meeting statement of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a press conference and the Labor Department will release monthly updates for public and private-sector jobs created and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on average mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic releases included reports on inflation, core inflation and minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting held June 18 and 19. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Inflation Rate Rises, but Grows at Lowest Pace in Four Months

June’s Consumer Price Index reported the lowest rate of inflation in four months with a year-over-year rate of 1.60 percent growth as compared to May’s year-over-year inflation rate of 1.80 percent. Fuel prices were lower, which helped balance rising costs of rent, clothing and autos. Analysts said that falling inflation rates would be a primary reason why the Fed is likely to cut its key interest rate range later this month.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, rose 0.30 percent in June and surpassed expectations of 0.20 percent growth and May’s 0.10 percent growth rate.

Federal Reserve policymakers base their decisions  on the Fed’s dual mandate of maintaining maximum employment and economic growth, which is benchmarked at 2.00 percent annual inflation. FOMC members repeatedly state their commitment to reviewing domestic and global economic news and willingness to adjust Fed policy according to changing economic conditions and current events.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac  reported little change in average mortgage rates last week; Rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages were unchanged at 3.75 percent; rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages rose four basis points on average to 3.22 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable mortgages rose one basis point to 3.40 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 claims to 209,000 claims filed and was lower than the expected reading of 221,000 new claims filed.  The July 4 holiday likely impacted the number of initial claims filed.

What‘s Next

This week’s scheduled economic news includes the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued and a report on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.