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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 20, 2016

June 20, 2016 by Kay Monigold

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week January 18 2016Mortgage rates fell after Federal Reserve policymakers decided not to raise the Fed’s target federal funds rate. The Federal Open Market Committee cited ongoing concerns over global financial and economic developments and slow jobs growth as factors in its decision not to raise rates. Fed Chair Janet Yellen emphasized the committee’s decision-making process is not predetermined and said that ongoing review of current and developing news is significant to monetary policy decisions.

Last week’s economic news also included the NAHB Housing Market Index, the monthly inflation rate and retail sales along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Home Builder Confidence Rises in June

According to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, Home builder confidence rose one point to a June reading of 60. May’s reading was 58 and analysts expected a reading of 59. June’s reading broke a four-month streak of unchanged readings. Sub-readings used to calculate the Housing Market Index were one point higher at 64 for current market conditions. Builders had higher confidence in market conditions for the next six months. June’s reading was five points higher at 70. June’s reading for buyer traffic remained below the benchmark of 50 at 47. The NAHB gauge of buyer traffic in new homes hasn’t hit 50 since the peak of the housing bubble.

National inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index was lower in May at 0.20 percent as compared to April’s reading of 0.40 percent; analysts expected a reading of 0.30 percent. Core inflation held steady at 0.20 percent; the core reading excludes volatile food and energy sectors, but energy prices, fuel prices and food are major components of household budgets.

The Federal Reserve has set an annual inflation rate of 2.00 percent as a benchmark reading for its consideration or raising the federal funds rate. Readings have remained consistently lower in recent years, which contributed to the Fed’s decision not to raise interest rates.

Mortgage Rates Fall as Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates for fixed and adjustable mortgages last week. 30-year fixed rate mortgages dropped f six basis points to an average of 3.54 percent. Rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged

2.81 percent, which was also six basis points lower. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was eight basis points lower at 2.740 percent. Lower mortgage rates are welcomed by first-time and moderate income homebuyers as home prices continue to rise.

New jobless claims rose to 277,000 as compared to an expected reading of 270,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 264,000 new claims. Analysts attributed the jump in new claims to seasonal influences including new claims filed by school workers eligible for benefits when classes aren’t in session.

What’s Ahead

Next week’s scheduled economic reports include reports on new and existing home sales along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims. A monthly reading of consumer sentiment will also be released.

Filed Under: Mortgage Rates Tagged With: Jobless Claims, Mortgage Rates

Fed Monetary Policy: No Rate Increase in June

June 16, 2016 by Kay Monigold

According to its post-meeting statement issued Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve voted not to increase its target federal funds rate. The target federal funds rate will remain at 0.250 to 0.50 percent.

Based on review of current and anticipated financial and economic events, the Committee cited slowing job growth and momentum of inflation-based compensation as reasons supporting its decision. While the national unemployment rate recently fell to 4.70 percent, FOMC members saw room for growth in employment. Unemployment rates are calculated based on active workforce members and do not include those who are under-employed or who have left the workforce. Global influences on the Fed’s monetary policy include uncertainties about China’s economy and the possibility that the United Kingdom may exit the European Union.

Housing markets and household spending improved, but the Fed cited lagging business investment and dismal jobs growth as concerns that led to a unanimous decision not to raise the federal funds rate.

Analysts characterized FOMC members as being “dovish” as compared to previous meetings. Only one member expected a single rate increase this year at the April meeting, but six members expected only one rate increase at June’s meeting.

In a post-statement press conference, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that while a rate increase is possible at FOMC’s July meeting, she noted that there is no post-meeting press conference scheduled, which would make it more difficult for the Fed to explain its decision. Analysts also said that a rate increase is unlikely in September in advance of national elections in November.

Inflation remains below the Fed’s goal of two percent and is expected to do so for the short to medium term.

Fed Chair Cites Changing Economic Conditions, Forecasts Incremental Rate Hikes

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said during her post-meeting press conference that current economic conditions indicate that gradual rate hikes are needed to ensure ongoing economic growth. Rate hikes, when and if they occur, would increase very slowly and are expected to remain “accommodative.”

Clair Yellen said that each FOMC meeting is “live,” which means that meeting agendas and actions can flex according to current developments that influence monetary policy. The FOMC has repeatedly said that its decision-making is primarily based on members’ constant evaluation of developments affecting domestic and global economies.

Filed Under: Mortgage Rates Tagged With: Fed Policy, Rate Hikes

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Kay MonigoldKay Monigold
Owner/Mortgage Broker/Residential Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS#1086176

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Residential Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS #1085638

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