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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – August 1, 2016

August 1, 2016 by Kay Monigold

WhatsAhead072916Last week’s economic reports included S&P Case-Shiller Housing Market Indices, reports on new and pending home sales, Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rates survey. The Federal Reserve released its customary statement after the scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluded; the Committee did not raise the federal funds rate of 0.25 percent, but indicated that economic risks were fewer, which suggested that the key Fed rate may be increased in September.

According to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for May, home price growth dipped from 5.40 percent in April to 5.20 percent in June as calculated on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Portland, Oregon led the 20-City Index with 12.50 percent growth in home prices annually. Seattle, Washington and Denver, Colorado rounded out the top three with readings of 10.70 and 9.50 percent annual growth respectively. Eight cities posted faster growth rates in May than for April. Analysts again cited short supplies of available homes and high demand for homes as reasons for rising home prices.

New and Pending Home Sales Increase

Sales of new homes reached a seven-year high and rose to 592,000 in June as compared to expectations of 562,000 new homes sold and May’s reading of 572,000 new homes sold. Analysts have consistently said that building more homes is the only way to solve the shortage of available homes. Rising sales of new homes are a step in the right direction, but builders cited labor shortages and lack of buildable land as hindering their ability to meet demand for homes.

Pending home sales also rose in June with an increase of 0.20 percent.Analysts expected new home sales to rise by 1.30 percent based on May’s negative reading of -3.70 percent. Pending home sales data assists with estimating future closings and demand for mortgage loans.

Fixed Mortgage Rates Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates for fixed rate mortgages; 5/1 adjustable rates held steady. The average rate for 30-year adjustable rate mortgages was three basis points higher at 3.48 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was also three basis points higher at 2.78 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage was unchanged at 2.78 percent. Average discount points held steady at 0.50 percent for all three mortgage types.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s economic releases include reports on personal income, inflation, and core inflation. Several reports on employment will be released including ADP payrolls, Non-farm payrolls, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new unemployment claims are also expected.

Filed Under: Mortgage Rates Tagged With: Homes Sales, Mortgage Rates

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in May

July 27, 2016 by Kay Monigold

CaseShillerAccording to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, home price growth in May dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.20 percent as compared to April’s reading of 5.40 percent. Analysts said that low mortgage rates continue to support housing markets, but also noted that affordability due to rising home prices is sidelining some would-be buyers. High demand for homes coupled with slim supplies of available homes have driven prices up for months; analysts said that “tentative signs” of slower gains in home prices were seen.

New Home Sales Hit Highest Level Since 2008

David M. Blitzer, Chairman of S&P Dow Jones Indices, cited high home prices and sales of previously-owned homes as contributing factors to a healthy housing sector. Slower home price growth in high priced metro areas may indicate that home prices are topping out in cities including Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle. With home prices out of reach in high demand metros, it’s likely that rampant home price growth seen in recent years will have to slow in spite of pronounced shortages of homes and high demand in many areas.

Building more homes is the only way to combat outsized competition for homes and astronomical home prices. According to the Commerce Department, June sales of new homes jumped to 592,000 as compared to an expected reading of 562,000 and May’s reading of 572,000 new homes sold on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. June sales of new homes were at their highest level since February 2008.

Rising Rents Increase Demand for Homes

The national average price for a new home rose to $306,700 in June, while the supply of available homes sank to 4.90 percent. Real estate pros typically consider a six-month supply of available homes a typical reading. 574,000 new homes were sold in the second quarter of 2016, which was 10 percent higher than the reading of 524,000 new homes sold in the first quarter of 2016.

A report on rental vacancies is due out on Thursday. Rapidly rising rents have recently contributed to higher numbers of first-time buyers looking to buy homes and could continue to strengthen demand for available homes.

Filed Under: Mortgage Rates Tagged With: CaseShiller, New Home Sales, Rising Rents

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Kay MonigoldKay Monigold
Owner/Mortgage Broker/Residential Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS#1086176

Steven LoweSteven P Lowe, Sr
Residential Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS #1085638

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