The PCE Index has remained above the Federal Reserve’s target and continues to be the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure for tracking inflation. Although the latest reading was not significantly above expectations, when considered alongside a number of other factors, it could contribute to the potential for a rate increase, particularly as the PCE Index has repeatedly come in higher than expected in recent months.
At the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Federal Reserve commented that it remains committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target. The Fed additionally stated that it would no longer provide forward guidance on future rate decisions, signaling a change in its communication approach going forward.
PCE Index
The U.S. PCE price index rose 0.4% month-over-month in May 2026, matching April’s increase and coming in below market expectations of a 0.5% advance. Goods inflation eased to 0.4% from 0.7%, while services inflation rose to 0.5% from 0.3% in each of the previous two months.
The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3%, the same as an upwardly revised 0.3% in the previous month and in line with market forecasts. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation accelerated for a third consecutive month to 4.1% from 3.8%, in line with expectations and marking the highest level since April 2023.
Core PCE inflation edged up to 3.4% from 3.3%, also in line with forecasts and reaching its highest level since October 2023. At its June 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecasts, projecting PCE inflation at 3.6% and core PCE inflation at 3.3% for the year, both remaining well above the central bank’s 2% target.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03%, bringing the current rate to 5.98%.
- 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01%, bringing the current rate to 6.66%.
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.04%, with current rate at 6.37%.
- 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.02%, with current rate at 6.37%.
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 225,000 compared to the expected claims of 205,000. The previous week landed at 209,000.
What’s Ahead
Non-farm Payrolls are set to be the highest-impact data release in the week ahead, with unemployment and manufacturing data also set to follow.
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